Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Statistics, Probability & How to Win the Lottery!

How To Choose Lotto Numbers:

Let's face it - most of us who struggle through the daily grind of life have a dream - winning the lottery and taking an express route to Easy Street! Imagine suddenly being transported into a life where money is no longer an issue, and you can live your life as you choose - as well as positively impact the lives of family and friends and secure their future.

This article is designed to change your thinking about how you play your lotto numbers each week. It is NOT a guarantee of winning the big prize - no-one can do that! However, you can use established mathematical processes to select numbers based on analyzing the history of previous draws, and consequently introduce a method to your goal of winning lotto!.

Most people select numbers randomly. They could be birthdays, favorite numbers, car license plates, or even such bizarre methods as getting your pet canary to pick them out! Many lotteries even offer 'autopick' features, where you just roll up to the counter and have numbers selected by computer printed onto your ticket. Using this random selection method is fine - in the end, when pure odds are applied, the numbers that you have selected have just as much a chance of winning as the numbers being selected by the person in the line behind you.

Right?

The answer, though somewhat bizarre, is PROBABLY not. I put the emphasis on 'probably' because it is the key word I'm using to introduce the concept of probability. You probably (!) recall studying this at school all those years ago. It is linked to the Law of Averages and is the idea that over a long period of time, numbers drawn by exactly the same method (ie Lottery draws) tend to average out in the number of times they are drawn.

Let's take a simple example - flipping a coin! There are two possible outcomes - heads or tails. If we flip the coin the first time, we have no way of knowing the outcome, it could be a head or a tail. If we flip the coin five times, we still don't know with any certainty what the next result will be.

But let's take flipping the coin twenty times (I'm doing this whilst writing this). Here are my results:

H T T H H T H H H T H H T H T H H T H T

So, that is twelve heads, and eight tails. Given that there are only two possible outcomes, and we have a (small) history of previous results, we can deduce that the PROBABILITY of getting a tail in the next flip is higher than that of getting a head.

Now, let's apply this to winning the lottery! Lotteries have now been around for many years, and we are able to get long histories of previous results. From these histories we can see which numbers have been drawn more frequently over the past given period of time, and deduce a probability that this number may be drawn more rarely in future. Conversely, numbers that have been rarely drawn have a probability of being drawn more often. That's what probability is all about - in simple terms, of course!

Now, how to apply this to effectively select numbers? Well, this is the trick of course! Knowing how to correctly interpret these histories, select smaller grouping of numbers more likely to be drawn, and add a level of 'randomness' that is inherent in all lotteries, is the key to changing how you select your numbers and increasing the probability that you will win the lottery each week - even if it is not the big jackpot!

For example, if we look at the number 43 (chosen completely randomly) and analyze its history of being drawn over the past 26 weeks against all other numbers, we may discover that it has been drawn rarely and is sitting with a pool of numbers at the bottom of the list. We may infer that over the next 26 weeks this number is more likely to be drawn - note that I say 'more likely' - in probabilities, nothing is certain! Those who know a lot about probability theory can apply even more complex equations to the list to get even more 'accurate' pools of numbers - and these are usually closely-guarded secrets from those 'in the know'!


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